How much will Amgen stock decline after PCSK9 CVOT Trials?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnlamattina/2016/10/19/despite-promising-early-data-the-new-cholesterol-lowering-drug-pcsk9si-has-significant-hurdles/#4fefcef01ffa


In the article's comment section, the author gave his opinion:


AUTHOR
John LaMattina 16 hours ago

For what it’s worth, I think that anacetrapib will flame out, but the PCSK9s will show a benefit in CVOTs, but not an overwhelming one. Of course, I didn’t think Trump had a chance at the Republican nomination!

 

PCSK9 therapeutics are a sales disaster for Amgen AND Sanofi, with neither PC or specialty making the grade at EITHER company. The truth is that there are street hookers with missing teeth out there that move more blowjobs than you guys sell in drugs.

 

Unfortunately replacing oral generic drugs with overly pricey biologics requires HUGE LIFESAVING improvements....

Be realistic PSCK9 are going to prove that statins are great drugs... and PSCK9 are almost as good

15% decline in stock price as reality sinks in......

 

Statins are good drugs. It's a proven fact. They are cheap and good. The benefit of pcsk9s is the additional benefit they would give to patients who are not well controlled in statins. The reality will show that lower is better until you reach a target level where there are diminishing returns. Few patients will have significant benefits while the overall benefit will be less once statins are maximized and pcsk9s are added.

I would be scared of analylam/the medicine company's twice or three times a year RNAi drug if the safety holds. The manufacturing is much cheaper than a biologic and it's far more convienent for patients.

Add Pfizer pcsk9s to the mix and this niche market will be a contracting game. The first mover advantage here is insignificant. As no one has built volume for contracting or physician experience for comfort and loyalty. Perception that all pcsk9s are the same isn't helping either.