Fail

Most people are too lazy to even look for something else. They will wait for the axe to hit them in the neck, then that's when they will start looking. As other posters have said, loss of patents in neuro, shrinking Trintellix sales, Rexulti a non-factor, and Abilify M. producing a small amount of revenue, no pipeline (a drug for treatment resistant schizo..please!!), morale at below rock bottom, poor management (and that's the understatement of the year!), insane alliance partners that dictate everything, all add up to layoffs. Every neuro rep has to be looking like crazy! Man, I really thought we had something special here.

Oh well, the first year was good, then came extreme micromanagement! I have ridden with my ASM in this year so much, that it would would equal 2 or more years with my previous company! I just updated my resume, and will start looking, hard, in the coming months. I really hate we have come to this.

 

well if you are looking to leave then the management strategy is working--voluntary walk outs.

I still wonder why we hired so many Gammas? And it is true they need to consolidate some territories, ask the ASMs they know who has access and who can't see enough to justify 8 or 6 calls a day.

Also agree on the speaker resources spoke and hub, psych U, etc are just check the box activities that cost a fortune.

 

Math for the win:

1. Assume current revenue is barely adequate.

2. Calculate expected growth in assets still under patent in early 2019.

3. Now subtract 700 million USD.

4. There are no new launches in next 4 years, so add 0 for additional revenue from new products.

5. If total is significantly less than zero, assume huge cuts or divestment.

6. Plan accordingly.

 

Not that naive....

Northera will bring in $215 mil by 2017. Its on track to do $150 mil in 2016.
AM will be 80-100 mil depending on Bipolar
Trint 130-140 mil
rexulti 200 mil

Agreed this isn't going to sustain 1000 person salesforce, but will be fine for 4-500 am's.

 

I think you're 400+ million short. We
Don't need 700 million total, we need 700 OVER what we currently bring in. And don't believe for a second that Denmark won't burn US sales force to the ground to save their own skin.

 

Don't know if your numbers are even close, but I doubt our shares of AM, Trin and Rex are even close to that. Don't forget Otsuka and Takeda, our wonderful partners, that have to get their cuts of the pie. We have problems other than just sales that have been talked about on here forever, that have not been addressed, nor will they be.

 

Not sure where you dug up those numbers. I just looked at the most recent quarterly report: Combined the 3 psych drugs add up to less than 450 and I will be generous and say 500 million per year. Xenazine is still bringing in more than that. The Titanic is taking on water.

 

Yep. And what are the odds that psych can more than double that revenue in the next 24 months?...0%

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lundbeck-falls-alzheimer-drug-fails-080716615.html

 

READ THE POST, this $600 million + is for our share of each product in 2017.

 

Please explain this quote. If you are saying that in 2017 each psych drug will be 600 million. That would be 1.8 billion???
Now if you are saying in 2017, our share of all 3 psych drugs will be 600 million - that is plausible. But if you are saying each? #1 you haven't read the annual reports. #2 You are high on crack.

 

600 million total from psych by the end of 2018 is not enough. We need 600+ million OVER what the psych products currently make (which is what 800 million?). Looking at the slope of the sales curves, there is no way this is happening.

The big goal in 2016 is 1 billion right? How in the hell is this going to be sustained in a couple years when all we have left are 3 crap psych products? Do you think HQ is going to say, "Good job peaking at 1 billion in 2016, now we're ok with 500 million annual in 2019."

Now add the fact that we only have 1 asset that might launch in the next 10 years (and likely after 2020). The cupboard is laughably barren.

We're so f***king f***ked we don't know how to unf**k ourselves.

The company's only hope is that the foundation kicks in a bunch of extra money to beef up the later stage pipeline. Thus far they and our CEO have refused to do this.

 

You forgot Northera, but you're right, we are still boned.

Can anyone say with a straight face that Northera and the psych products will bring in 1 billion USD in 2019?

Even if they do and the company limps on, it's hard to fund a pipeline on only that.

 

And everyone is forgetting something very important. Lundbeck LOST a billion dollars in 2015. Even if we hit a billion in 2016, the net effect after 2 years is we broke even. Net revenue for 2 years is ZERO.

 

Well I'm assuming the 1000 people they terminated in 2015 made up for the 1 billion loss, but who knows.

US management will thump their chests about hitting 1 billion in 2016 (which resulted from shocking high continued Xenazine revenue) but definitely have their exit strategy of planned.

So long as they leave prior to the end of 2018, they won't be blamed for the aftermath.

 

If they bought Ovation and if they bought Northera, why wouldn't they have another drug or company to purchase in their immediate plans?

 

1. CEO has stated they will not acquire any asset later than phase 1.

2. They used to have more money (Lexepro, Ebixia, rasagalaine, etc). Now they are broke.

 

$600 million is the total for all BRANDED psych drugs in the US plus Northera for 2017. (does not include sabril, onfi, xenazine)

NOT 600 million per product, 600 million in total.

Severance for 1000 people plus continued benefits is 50-100 million. Dont know how that billion dollar loss came to be.

 

So....

600 million (or 700 to account for growth) 2019 revenue for psych/Northera - 1 billion peak US sales 2016 + 0 new products =

-300 to 400 million USD in 2019, with slippage started as early as Sabril LOE in a couple months (and I think this is underestimate given Onfi + Sabril)

Folks this was supposed to be covered by the Alzheimer's drug. There was no contingency plan.

 

Overall, with Xen generics having a bigger and bigger impact, and Sabril going generic, all neuro will have is Onfi and Northera. That unneeded IV seizure drug will be nothing. They will pad the bottom line by cutting bonus (as they have already done with the ridiculous goals), and layoffs. Look for PIP's to become the norm, as headcount is reduced w/o paying their meager severance. With the Alz drug bombing, and 2 studies left which will likely bomb out too, that drug will be shelved, then we basically have no pipeline. The resistant schizo drug will also be nothing.

All of this going on, and they still spend money like a drunken sailor on useless things like speaker programs, and still we dance to Otsuka's and Takeda's tune. Their are only 2 questions left, how many will leave over the next few months on their own, and then, when will the layoffs/reorg begin?