Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics - Region North America re-org

seriously doubt many NVD folks will work with their GSK peers. GSK can sell Menveo with their existing sales force...after all they pretty much have been selling it to lock up Pediarix accounts.

 

As far as what parts of former Vaccines GSK does and doesn't Need I don't think that in the
long run they need anything other than the IPs for the menig franchise. It not as if we are world class in anything else like Tech Ops, Reaeach or heaven knows Development. The there is all the support overhead like Regulatiry etc.

It might seem that the latest signs of success for Bexzero might be enable a claim of vindication for RR and AO but it will be realized by someone else using a company and process not of their capabilities to organize. In the end, Novaris Vaciines will be like a start up that GSK bought just for the product that the shareholders of Novartis paid for the development of.

 

I heard that they are trying to covert all Novartis stock grants that haven't yet vested yet to GSK stock grants. My prediction is that, as soon as that is finalized and they go forward with that plan you will see a rush of senior people here for the door like the rich pushing and shoving for the life boats on the Titanic. The potential for a stock buy-out is the ONLY reason many Sr People are staying and frankly, everyone knows that. GSK knows that and is willing to usher all these folks to the door sooner rather than pay them millions to wait around a few extra months.

The severance pay that they will have to pay to all the "little people", when they cut us later, will then be chump change.

 

Someone is having a temper-tantrum. Thought you were safe with a roll-up to pharma? Now you actually have to prove yourself to a legitimate company? Don't get mad at the posters because you were asleep this whole time

 

Interesting little piece in this morning's Wall Street Journal in their Heard on the Street section. A little innuendo towards the end of the piece stating that they think the oncology sale was a bit odd and much higher than it should have been in terms of the price that was announced. The Journal said the oncology sale price was about "10 times historic revenue, or about 7 times forecast"

 

It's not odd at all when you stop to think about the $7.1 billion GSK paid for vaccines. That's how they dressed it up. You overpay us for vaccines and we'll give you that and more for your oncology piece.

 

WSJ post is one of many that highlights suspicious nature of this deal. It is going to crash and burn.

 

This was suspicious from the very beginning. Earlier Vaccines was valued at $1B during swap deal with Merck. All of a sudden, GSK agreed to pay $7B. If $16B was 10x of cancer revenue, $10B (adjusted for vaccines overpayment) will be 7x of cancer revenue which is more sensible.

 

Your logic is ok but the math doesn't work. The deal was GSK will pay $16B for Oncology plus $7B for Vaccines. If we use your logic and this publicly stated math then GSK will pay $6B plus $7B or $13B for Vaccines.

 

I am more than happy to compete with morons like you who read these posts and think that the conclusion is that I was "asleep". The obvious conclusion is that whomever made the post trying to point out that there were many fewer posts then there were views is simply a moron like you if it wasn't you. The numbers of post in this thread is still many times higher than other posts in CP and, unlike other posts here, there has been information posted that has infuriated the leadership and forced them to make rushed press releases.

Grow up moron, these are the big leagues not high school.

 

7B paid for vaccines. Actual value of vaccines = 1B (from Merck swap). Extra paid for vaccines = 6B

Actual paid for cancer = 16B. Taking out extra paid for vaccines to make its number look good = 16 - 6B = 10B = real price of cancer drugs

As previous poster said, 16B is 10x historic revenue.This means that the historical revenue = 1.6B which means real price of cancer drugs is 6-7x historical revenue = 10B/1.6B

 

"The Swiss drugmaker said it would buy London-based GSK's oncology products for $14.5 billion plus another $1.5 billion that depends on the results of a trial in melanoma.

The deal will strengthen Novartis's world No. 2 position in cancer behind crosstown rival Roche Holding AG.

Novartis said GSK was buying its vaccines, excluding flu, for $5.25 billion plus potential milestone payments of up to $1.8 billion and ongoing royalties. The companies also will form a joint venture in consumer healthcare.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/22/us-novartis-idUSBREA3L07T20140422

Unless I am reading this wrong it says $14.5B + $1.8B = $16.3B just for Oncology then an additional $5.25B + $1.8B = $7.05B for Vaccines. So the total paid to Novartis by GSK for Oncology and Vaccines would be $23.35B. By your logic, if you take $6 from the ~ $16B that GSK paid for Oncology and attribute that towards an overpayment for Vaccines then they really paid $6B + $7.05B = $13.05B for Vaccines.

 

Novartis paid GSK for their oncology division, GSK paid novartis for their vaccines division. GSK is not buying novartis' oncology division.

 

Poster 1652 is a true Novartis Vaccines prodigy...

 

What do you mean? These guys were cooking, I mean looking after the books here for the past few years.

 

Yep 1652 man thinks everything was going ok and now can't even do the math to understand how GSK / Novartis concocted a deal to unload Vaccines without Novartis having to admit that we were a flop. It gives GSK to take all the tax advantages that go along with shutting down most of Vacines so that it shields them from all the gains that they make in the sale of their Oncology unit.

It is so transparent I am not sure that it will make it past the regulators / IRS.

 

Let's play nice. We should not let this uncertainty rob us of our dignity.

Besides, these numbers do not make a lot of sense. I could not fault anyone for having difficulty following the bouncing ball.

Interesting how the timing of the deal coincidentally preceded the first quarter earnings announcement. (The first time that NV would be reporting without diagnostics)

 

Hum, wasn't the timing predicted here earlier? Isn't this announcement tantamount to AO leaving, as predicted here, and just coincidently with the timing predicted?

My dignity left when I realized 2 years ago that even Novartis didn't take this place seriously. I have been trying to exit since now I just hope this will work to my advantage. Maybe since Novartis basically overpaid for Oncology to get GSK to take us off their hands then maybe they will feel generous and have mercy on us?

I think that this thread at CP has had a hunting rifle accuracy when in come to events at Vaccines.

 

Mercy? - the only mercy they will show us is ending this long slow motion train wreck. This is how it will play out.

The decision on how to treat the stock grants has the opposite incentives than it would normally. In normal cases the acquiring company would signal their desire to keep any current Novartis employees that have Novartis stock grants around long term by converting those to GSK stock and having those covered grants to vest in the future, after the acquisition is complete. But in this case, since GSK doesn't really need many of the folks to which that would be an incentive they will probably convert them knowing that many will leave on their own accord in the interim when the decision is made and the acquisition is complete. Anyone in the category that GSK wants to keep long term will be given under-the-table assurances etc. This will save GSK a lot of costs for both the conversion of the grants as well as severance for the most expensive employees.

Then, most of whom is ever left after the acquisition is closed will be gone within 6 months of the closing date. The only people that they need or want are those that guarantee the continuing production of or sales of the current franchises and or anyone associated with bringing any future possible vaccines, with a good chance of market success, to the market. And the farther those are from launch the fewer that they need. You could basically pull a string through the organization from 2 spots in the current org - Tech Ops in Rosia and Reg / Govt affairs dealing with Bexsero up to but not including sales reps and if you could reach out and touch those 2 strings, you will be in the GSK longer than 6 months after the acquisition is closed.

How they jettison the garbage that can't touch the string is really nothing too them. The easiest and maybe cheapest way is to eliminate and sever or they could go the FSP route.

 

Is Whitney R still over there?