What are the odds that we keep Carnexiv? I could see us announcing a sale of the asset, plus huge neuro sales force and R&D reduction with announcement of Q1 earnings.
Agree to both statements. It is not if a restructuring takes place, it is when. The math doesn't work without a pretty sizable layoff.
We are going to have egg on our face regardless. Without Xenazine tail and Sabril next year, I can't see us getting back to 1 billion (though if someone sees a path and can show me the math, go for it). Then the wheels completely come off with Onfi LOE in 2018.
Are you forgetting Onfi and Northera? Onfi will bring in $350m, and Northera $215m this year. Neuro alone will bring in $700m in 2017, with conservative growth (including Xenazine and Sabril) with 120 reps. As much as PA wants to deny it we are two separate companies with two distinctly different ways of driving business.
Near does provide the bulk of the revenue, no doubt. But, with Xenazine losing ground faster and faster, then Sabril being hit hard next year too, Neuro will lose it's luster. Also, people are looking to jump ship. Morale is horrible, and getting worse. Nope, Lundbeck has also lost it's luster. If offers nothing over any other company now, so why not jump if the package is even or better than what we have now. Take a look at our "pipeline" if you have any doubts.
Well your "larger" company dies in 2018 with nothing to replace it. So unless you have a 24 month plan to spin this job into something better (like PA does), it is idiotic to stay here. Cruel, but true. Oh, and for peons, cuts won't wait until 2018. Try early 2017.
