Here is the game. 1. What level do you believe the drug will need to hit to be clinically meaningful to doctors? 2. What level do you believe the drug will need to hit to be meaningful to justify cost-effectiveness to payers? 3. Where do you think Repatha outcomes will be? 4. What does that mean in terms of patient type, peak sales, and the Amgen stock? 5. What do Repatha outcomes mean in terms of Amgen? ____________________________________________________________________________________ 1. What level do you believe the drug will need to hit to be clinically meaningful to doctors? MIN - 20%, ideal 25%+ 2. What level do you believe the drug will need to hit to be meaningful to justify cost-effectiveness to payers? MIN - 25%, Ideal - 30%+ 3. Where do you think Repatha outcomes will be? Between 12%-15% on top of statins that were optimized, 16-18% best 4. What does that mean in terms of patient type, peak sales, and the Amgen stock? DRUG becomes niche product, peak sales lower to $900M max , Amgen stock takes hit as drug will not be in $2.5B-3.5B 5. What do Repatha outcomes mean in terms of Amgen? CV sales restructure, Amgen layoffs, BD more desperate for acquisition or merger with another large Biopharma What are your thoughts?
repatha shows "noninferiority" to your favorite statin, ie lipitor, crestor etc unfortunately statins really work and are hard to beat
